Forecasting of neonatal mortality trend at a special new-born care unit in Odisha, India: A time-series analysis

Abstract

Background: New born mortality is a public health problem in the state of Odisha. Newborn mortality is a dynamic process and variations in mortality are observed temporally and seasonally, and also across health facilities. Prior knowledge of mortality burden can enable health system’s readiness in terms of resources allocation and timely intervention, thereby improving the chances of survival of sick newborns admitted in the hospitals. Hence, this study aimed to examine temporal trends of newborn mortality in a Special Newborn Care Unit of Saheed Laxman Nayak Medical College and Hospital (SLNMCH) in Odisha and forecast a short-term monthly projection.